The debate over artificial intelligence has split the technology world into two camps that rarely seem to be describing the same technology.

On one side are those who warn that AI could pose an existential threat.

On the other are those who predict an era of unprecedented abundance and wealth.

For investors, businesses, and the public trying to make sense of it, the gap between the two can be overwhelming.

To better understand how to navigate this divide, we spoke with two experts who work with AI every day: Veni Dhir, Director of Corporate Venture Capital at ADP, and Ruchi Bhatia, Technical Product Marketing Manager at AWS.

Observe what AI can do now

Both the experts stressed paying attention to what AI can do now rather than worrying about what it can do in the future.

Veni Dhir said that while she has to price both the possibilities of existential threat and abundance, she was “not in the extinction camp as a base case.”

Dhir was speaking in her personal capacity as an investor and AI practitioner, and her views do not reflect those of her employer.

“The evidence that informs my view is deployment reality: AI systems are producing measurable productivity gains in specific domains — software development, customer support, document work — while hitting the same ceiling in the wild every time: edge cases, the need for human review, and the hardest last ten percent,” she added.

In her view, neither of the louder narratives is playing out on the schedule its supporters suggest.

“The abundance case is real but slower and more uneven than predicted; the extinction case rests on capability jumps that keep arriving later than the loudest forecasts said they would,” she said.

“I underwrite what I can observe in production, not timelines.”

Ruchi Bhatia also pointed out the distinction between present capability and future expectations.

“AI can already help people write code, summarize and research faster, and on some narrow tasks it matches or beats human performance.”

The expert pointed out that it doesn’t mean society is moving towards an “AI-powered utopia or mass unemployment in general. A lot of that debate jumps from what’s possible from a real capability point of view today to a large conclusion of what can happen 5 to 10 years from now.”

Why there is disagreement over AI’s long-term impact

The disagreement over AI’s long-term impact is not solely about what the technology can achieve.

It also reflects differing views on whether safety research, regulation, and governance can keep pace with its development, according to Veni Dhir.

She said experts can examine the same evaluations of AI systems and reach different conclusions because there are no reliable methods for predicting when broader capabilities will emerge.

However, Dhir argued that the divide also stems from differences in how people view institutions and their ability to manage technological risks.

“People who trust institutions see a manageable technology; people who don’t see a race to the bottom,” she said, describing the debate as a question of values that is often presented as a technical one.

Why AI capabilities do not automatically translate into economic gains

Ruchi Bhatia said the gap between an AI system demonstrating a capability and that capability being widely adopted is often overlooked when people assess the technology’s economic impact.

Adoption remains a significant hurdle, she said, noting that most organisations have not yet scaled AI beyond pilots.

Even when a system can perform a task effectively, businesses must consider whether they can afford to deploy it and whether it fits their operations.

“Running AI at scale still costs real money,” Bhatia said, pointing to the costs associated with running queries and generating text, images and videos.

“Cost also has to be weighed against quality, so there are trade-offs. Some industries have regulations that limit how freely AI can be used. Then there’s organizational change: are people ready for it? And is AI even needed for tasks that people already do well today?” she added.

Separate demonstrated results from forecasts and speculation

Bhatia said people assessing claims about AI should distinguish between 3 categories that include evidence of what has already happened, forecasts based on specific assumptions and speculation about possible future scenarios.

Evidence includes results from experiments, incidents within companies, labour-market data and productivity measurements.

For example, “a specific AI model outperforming another on a defined task,” the expert added.

She noted that forecasts, by contrast, depend on assumptions about how the technology might develop.

“If AI costs fall by a certain amount, adoption reaches a certain level and a share of tasks can be automated, what would the economic effect be?” she added.

Speculation goes further by exploring possible outcomes without presenting them as established predictions.

Bhatia said all three categories can be useful, but problems arise when they are presented with the same degree of certainty.

“The mistake is when these three get presented with the same level of certainty, and that’s when people get confused,” she said.

Headlines and benchmarks can distort perceptions of AI

Bhatia said headlines and benchmark results can contribute to misunderstandings about AI, particularly when strong performance on a specific test is interpreted as evidence that a system is ready for widespread use.

“A general model that performs well on healthcare overall may still struggle with a narrower, more specialized task that needs more domain-specific data. Strong benchmark results, even ones that beat human performance, don’t mean a model is ready for production,” Ruchi Bhatia added.

Bhatia said the gap between benchmark performance and practical application needs to be communicated more clearly, particularly as concerns about AI’s potential effects on jobs and society grow.

While public concern about technological change is understandable, she argued that people need more context about what AI systems can actually do and where their limitations remain.

The expert noted that the responsibility also lies with the people developing and deploying the technology to explain its capabilities and potential consequences, rather than allowing headline-driven narratives to dominate the discussion.

AI has the potential to improve a range of tasks, Bhatia said, but communicating how the technology could change existing processes is equally important.

How much of the AI debate is marketing?

Bhatia acknowledged that marketing plays a role in how AI capabilities and risks are presented, while arguing that claims made by companies can also be challenged and scrutinised.

“Claims can be challenged, and regulators have acted on false AI claims, so credible companies need evidence behind what they say,” Ruchi Bhatia said.

Veni Dhir said the safety warnings of AI models could be used to hype up the model’s capability.

“Safety warnings can function as a competitive moat (regulatory capture dressed as caution), and hype is how you raise the next round,” she said.

For investors and businesses, she recommended looking beyond public statements and examining what people are willing to stake their capital and careers on.

“When the people warning about risks are simultaneously raising billions to build the thing, take the warning seriously but discount the framing,” Dhir said.

She added that credible signals include predictions that can be tested against specific dates and statements that run counter to a person’s own commercial interests.

The post AI doom or AI abundance? Two tech insiders on how to tell evidence from hype appeared first on Invezz

The post AI doom or AI abundance? Two tech insiders on how to tell evidence from hype appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

AI development is increasingly dependent on the physical infrastructure needed to power data centres, with electricity supply, grid connections and utility investment emerging as critical constraints on the industry’s expansion, according to Goldman Sachs.

While advances in AI models continue to drive demand for computing capacity, the infrastructure required to support that growth operates on a much longer timeline.

Transmission lines, substations, power generation facilities and data centres can take years to develop, potentially slowing the deployment of AI systems even as computing technology advances.

Goldman Sachs Research expects global data centre power demand to increase by 170% between 2025 and 2030, with more than 60% of the growth coming from the US.

However, supply-chain constraints, permitting requirements and limited grid capacity could moderate the pace of expansion.

“Power is probably the forever bottleneck,” said Jason Tofsky, global head of Digital Infrastructure Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs.

He noted that delivering a successful project requires coordination across numerous areas, including financing, over a period that can range from six months to two years.

AI growth depends on more than computing capacity

The AI industry requires substantial investment in computing hardware, data centres and power infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs estimates that aggregate AI capital expenditure could reach $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031 across these areas.

Financing this expansion will require substantial borrowing alongside other sources of capital.

Goldman Sachs Research projects that global hyperscaler debt issuance will reach $420 billion in 2027, more than 60% above its estimate for the 2026 financial year.

Hyperscalers, however, account for only around 40% of credit raised across the AI ecosystem, highlighting the broader financing requirements associated with the industry’s expansion.

These investments depend on more than the availability of capital.

Data centre developers must secure land, obtain regulatory approvals, source equipment, arrange electricity supply and complete construction before facilities can become operational.

The process creates multiple potential bottlenecks.

Delays in any one area can affect the entire project, regardless of how quickly AI models or computing hardware improve.

Grid capacity emerges as a critical constraint

The US electricity grid faces growing pressure as data centre developers seek access to large amounts of power.

One challenge is the volume of projects waiting to connect to the grid.

According to Goldman Sachs, the US interconnection queue contains roughly 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of generation and storage projects.

This is more than twice the installed capacity of the existing grid.

The size of the queue does not mean all proposed capacity will be built.

However, it illustrates the scale of demand competing for access to grid infrastructure.

The median time between submitting an interconnection application and reaching commercial operation is now approximately five years, with some projects taking longer.

Transmission infrastructure is another constraint.

Goldman Sachs Research data show that US construction of new high-voltage transmission lines declined from an annual average of 1,700 miles between 2010 and 2014 to just 350 miles between 2020 and 2023.

Equipment shortages can extend the timeline further.

Environmental reviews may take three to four years, while lead times for high-voltage substations and generation step-up transformers have stretched to roughly three to five years.

Utilities face rising investment requirements

The growing demand for electricity is changing the outlook for utilities, a sector traditionally associated with relatively low growth and defensive investment characteristics.

Goldman Sachs expects aggregate utility capital plans to reach $1.3 trillion between 2026 and 2030.

The projected spending reflects the need to expand infrastructure to accommodate rising electricity demand, including that generated by AI data centres.

Utilities must determine how to finance new generation capacity, transmission lines and substations while ensuring that infrastructure can support additional large-scale electricity consumers.

Hyperscalers and other large electricity users are increasingly considering arrangements in which they contribute directly to the cost of the generation and grid infrastructure required to serve their facilities.

These arrangements could help align investment in digital infrastructure with the capacity needed to supply it.

Tyler Miller, global co-head of Power, Utilities, and Infrastructure Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs, described the principle behind this approach as straightforward: “Growth enables growth.”

The idea is that investment in data centres can support additional investment in electricity infrastructure, provided that the costs and benefits are appropriately coordinated.

For utilities, the opportunity is accompanied by substantial execution and financing requirements.

Capital must be committed to projects that may take years to complete, while developers must manage equipment availability, regulatory approvals and uncertainty over the timing of future demand.

Behind-the-meter power offers an alternative

The constraints affecting grid connections have encouraged greater interest in alternative power arrangements, including behind-the-meter projects.

A grid-connected data centre must secure the necessary approvals to connect to the electricity network.

Behind-the-meter projects can avoid some of these grid constraints by arranging power supply outside the conventional grid connection process.

However, these projects do not eliminate the broader challenges associated with building power infrastructure. They may face air-permitting requirements and longer environmental reviews, depending on the project.

Goldman Sachs also identifies hybrid power arrangements and fuel cells as part of the changing mix of electricity sources supporting US data centres.

Its analysis of US data centre power demand indicates that grid-supplied electricity remains the dominant source, while behind-the-meter and fuel-cell power contribute increasing amounts in the later forecast years.

The relative appeal of these alternatives will depend on the constraints facing individual projects.

Avoiding some grid limitations does not remove the need to secure equipment, obtain permits, and finance construction.

For investors, the development of alternative power arrangements creates additional infrastructure opportunities.

Permitting and community opposition add to project risks

The expansion of data centres also depends on local regulatory decisions and community acceptance.

Large projects can place pressure on local infrastructure, including roads and public services.

Concerns about noise, emissions, water consumption, traffic and the potential effect on residential electricity bills can influence whether developments proceed as planned.

Goldman Sachs reported that, since January 2026, 86 projects had been cancelled or significantly delayed, with 76 directly linked to local opposition.

The figures show how community concerns can become a material constraint on infrastructure development, alongside grid capacity and equipment shortages.

The regulatory challenges also differ depending on how a project is structured.

Grid-connected facilities require regulatory approvals for their electricity connections, while behind-the-meter developments can face different permitting requirements.

Developers may improve their chances of progressing by addressing these issues early.

Goldman Sachs highlights the importance of credible community-benefit commitments and transparent plans for managing environmental impacts.

Skilled labour becomes another bottleneck

The AI infrastructure build-out also depends on the availability of workers capable of constructing and operating data centres and power facilities.

In some markets, competing projects are bidding up wages as developers seek to attract workers from a limited labour pool.

These shortages can disrupt projects even after developers have secured land, electricity arrangements and equipment.

The challenge extends across the infrastructure supply chain, from construction to the installation and maintenance of power systems.

Labour constraints could therefore add to project costs and delay the delivery of new capacity, affecting the timing of investment returns.

However, the expansion is also creating skilled, well-paying blue-collar jobs across the US.

This could broaden the economic benefits of AI infrastructure investment beyond technology companies and the digital economy.

Financing must adapt to longer project timelines

The growing complexity of AI infrastructure projects is increasing the need for financing arrangements that can accommodate different construction schedules and investment requirements.

Capital must be coordinated across land acquisition, development, power infrastructure, equipment procurement, construction and long-term operations.

These requirements bring together utilities, hyperscalers, infrastructure investors, private-credit providers, insurers and other long-term sources of capital.

Goldman Sachs’ projections for hyperscaler borrowing illustrate the scale of financing needed to support the industry’s expansion.

Yet access to funding alone does not guarantee that projects will be completed on schedule.

Delays in power connections, equipment deliveries, or regulatory approvals can push back the point at which infrastructure begins generating revenue.

Longer timelines can increase risk and widen the gap between projects that have secured electricity supplies and those still waiting for grid access.

The report also points to the possibility of a more measured investment cycle.

Although infrastructure constraints can delay growth, a slower build-out may allow demand to absorb new capacity over time, potentially reducing the risk of investing in assets that are not fully utilised.

Power availability could shape the AI race

The infrastructure constraints identified by Goldman Sachs suggest that the next phase of AI expansion will depend as much on the ability to coordinate physical systems as on technological progress.

AI models can improve over months, but expanding electricity generation, transmission capacity and equipment supply can take years.

This mismatch could result in a less linear build-out, with new capacity becoming available in stages as power infrastructure comes online.

The timing of these additions will matter for companies investing in data centres and computing capacity.

Projects with secured power may be better positioned to progress, while those awaiting grid connections could face extended delays.

The report also raises questions about whether markets with the ability to expand generation and grid capacity more quickly, such as China, could develop competitive advantages.

For utilities, the rising demand creates an opportunity to invest in infrastructure and support a growing digital economy.

For investors, however, the scale of the opportunity must be weighed against capital requirements, permitting risks, labour shortages and the time needed to deliver new capacity.

The post Why Goldman Sachs views Grid and Utilities as the key AI growth bottlenecks appeared first on Invezz

The post Why Goldman Sachs views Grid and Utilities as the key AI growth bottlenecks appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

US stocks may have seen immense volatility lately but they are heading into the final quarter of 2026 after a strong run, with the S&P 500 on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, according to BlackRock Fundamental Equities.

Such a streak has occurred only three times in the past 100 years, it says.

Carrie King, managing director and global chief investment officer of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, said historical patterns suggest a strong first three quarters more often precede further gains than a reversal during the final quarter.

The fourth quarter has also typically been the strongest period of the year for US equities.

However, King said investors must assess the specific economic and market conditions shaping the outlook rather than rely solely on historical trends.

Four questions are particularly relevant as investors position their portfolios for the remainder of 2026: whether artificial intelligence spending is generating returns, how long earnings growth can continue, where opportunities are emerging beyond AI and which international markets offer attractive prospects.

AI investment begins to show returns

BlackRock sees evidence that the enormous investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is beginning to generate financial benefits.

The firm’s Global Technology team estimates that AI computing infrastructure investments by hyperscalers and AI cloud providers can now achieve payback in less than three years, compared with periods of up to four years just months ago.

Revenue growth at major cloud providers accelerated in the second quarter, with the growth rate twice that of the year-earlier period.

This suggests businesses are increasingly using AI services, helping justify continued investment in computing capacity.

The spending requirements remain substantial.

AI infrastructure investment is estimated to exceed $10 trillion by 2030 as demand for AI tokens and the computing power needed to generate them expands.

The benefits are also spreading beyond infrastructure providers.

The number of large-cap US companies citing AI-related financial improvements increased by 77% over the past year, according to the figures cited by BlackRock.

That trend suggests companies adopting AI are beginning to realise productivity gains, improve competitiveness and generate additional revenue, potentially sustaining the next phase of investment.

Earnings growth could support equities into 2027

Corporate earnings provide another source of support for the market outlook.

Consensus estimates point to the third consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, a run not seen in two decades.

Early forecasts suggest the streak could extend into 2027.

Longer-term expectations are also elevated.

Five-year forward earnings growth estimates stand at 18%, compared with a historical average of 12%, according to BlackRock.

The outlook is constructive outside the US as well.

Europe is recording its strongest earnings growth in three years, while emerging markets are forecast to deliver earnings growth of nearly 50% in 2026.

South Korea and Taiwan, both beneficiaries of AI-related demand, are expected to contribute significantly to that performance.

The breadth of earnings growth matters because it could help reduce reliance on a narrow group of large technology companies to drive equity market returns.

Cyclical sectors offer opportunities beyond AI

BlackRock also sees a cyclical recovery developing in the US, creating opportunities in sectors that are not directly tied to artificial intelligence.

Industrials, financials and non-AI analogue semiconductors are showing signs of improvement.

While companies supplying equipment and services for AI data centres have attracted considerable investor attention, King sees improving earnings prospects in traditional cyclical businesses, including logistics, airlines and packaging.

Analogue semiconductor companies could benefit from an industrial recovery and improving inventory cycles.

Financial companies also have several potential tailwinds.

Major US banks are benefiting from investment banking, trading and capital markets activity, alongside subdued loan delinquencies and a recovery in loan growth from depressed levels.

Consumer finance companies could see earnings accelerate as credit conditions normalise, funding costs decline and consumer spending remains resilient.

These areas offer investors opportunities to participate in broader economic growth without concentrating their exposure entirely in AI-related stocks.

Japan and Europe provide diversification

Outside the US, BlackRock is particularly interested in Japan and Europe, which have delivered strong equity performance without relying on the same scale of AI investment driving US markets.

Japan’s year-to-date return stood at 21%, compared with gains of around 13% for both the US and Europe, according to the figures cited by BlackRock.

The country is undergoing structural reforms supported by government and corporate initiatives. BlackRock’s Japan team also finds that a substantial proportion of Japanese stocks continue to trade below book value, potentially creating opportunities for investors.

Specialty materials companies supplying the AI infrastructure buildout are another area of interest.

In Europe, improving earnings are being led by the energy sector.

The region has a greater share of companies positioned to benefit from rising investment in energy and infrastructure associated with AI development.

European companies also generate a significant portion of their revenue outside the continent, providing exposure to a broader range of economic drivers.

BlackRock sees European equities as a way to complement US technology-heavy portfolios, with European stocks trading at a 25% discount to their US counterparts.

BlackRock favours a risk-aware approach

Despite the constructive outlook, King cautioned that investors must remain alert to geopolitical uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy, the effects of higher interest rates on long-duration assets and the sustainability of earnings growth beyond AI.

The combination of elevated market expectations and concentrated investment in certain themes makes diversification and stock selection particularly important.

BlackRock’s position is to remain constructive on equities while acknowledging that volatility could persist through the fourth quarter and beyond.

The firm believes an active, fundamentals-driven investment approach can help investors navigate market fluctuations while seeking opportunities across sectors and regions.

The post S&P 500 eyes 4th straight year of double-digit gains, a rare feat in 100 years appeared first on Invezz

The post S&P 500 eyes 4th straight year of double-digit gains, a rare feat in 100 years appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

Investors questioning the returns on artificial intelligence (AI) spending should consider securing exposure to another sector: US homebuilders.

Housing stocks charged higher on Thursday as Treasury yields declined, offering a glimpse of how they stand to benefit from a rotation out of technology due to AI bubble concerns.

D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup all posted “strong intraday gains” as investors reassessed an industry battered by expensive financing.

The attraction goes beyond a rotation: sustained mortgage-rate relief could improve affordability for buyers and reduce the financial concessions builders need to close sales.

Homebuilder stocks to benefit from lower mortgage rates

Housing offers a concrete way to invest in falling borrowing costs. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 7.32% from 7.40% a week earlier.

That remains rather expensive, but the direction matters for households whose purchasing decisions depend heavily on monthly payments.

For homebuilders, a sustained decline could deliver two benefits – more qualified buyers and less pressure to subsidize financing.

Mortgage-rate buydowns help move inventory, but they consume money as well that could otherwise support profitability.

The opportunity therefore extends beyond stronger sales volumes.

Homebuilders could eventually retain more profit on each closing as affordability improves.

However, one weekly decline doesn’t establish a recovery, and mortgage rates need not follow Fed policy moves precisely.

A different earnings driver can diversify an AI-heavy portfolio

US homebuilder stocks offer material exposure to household formation, employment, and housing affordability, giving investors a different set of earnings drivers from the companies financing the AI infrastructure boom.

The sector’s current difficulties also explain its recovery potential.

October’s NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 29, while 43% of builders reported cutting prices and 65% offered sales incentives.

Those figures reveal notable operating pressure that easing financing conditions could gradually relieve.

Still, investors should distinguish a rotation opportunity from a dependable hedge. An AI sell-off accompanied by widespread job losses could undermine housing demand even as bond yields fall.

The strongest backdrop would be moderating inflation and stable employment: enough economic resilience to support purchases, alongside lower borrowing costs.

Selective exposure makes more sense than assuming every housing-related business will benefit equally.

D.R. Horton stock: a top pick within US homebuilders

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) stands out because its national scale and broad product offering provide multiple avenues to capture improving demand.

America’s largest builder by volume operates across 126 markets in 36 states, reducing dependence on any single local housing economy.

Its mortgage-financing business also gives it tools to address buyers’ affordability constraints.

Its latest reported quarter demonstrates resilience: fiscal Q3 closings increased 4% to 23,983 homes, generating $9.2 billion in consolidated revenue and $904.9 million in net income.

Nevertheless, cancellations increased to 20% from 17% a year earlier, underscoring continued buyer hesitation.

That combination makes Horton a credible recovery candidate with an established earnings base.

Its October 29 results will provide the next test: investors should watch incentives, cancellations, and margins before treating Thursday’s rally as evidence of a lasting turnaround.

The post Worried about AI bubble burst? Invest in this sector instead appeared first on Invezz

The post Worried about AI bubble burst? Invest in this sector instead appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

US stocks ended lower on Friday as losses spread beyond technology shares, while rising oil prices and renewed concerns over the US-Iran conflict added pressure to markets.

Investors also looked ahead to a busy week of corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.25%, or about 659 points, to 52,209.16.

The S&P 500 declined 0.52% to 7,623.86, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.21% to close at 25,955.34.

Despite Friday’s declines, the Dow gained 0.4% over the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.7%.

Oil prices rise as Middle East tensions weigh on stocks

Energy prices climbed as renewed concerns about the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran raised the risk of further disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 3.8% to settle at $103.34 a barrel, while Brent crude gained 3.25% to $116.85. Brent’s settlement was its highest since April.

The rally followed reports that the US and Israel could be preparing plans for renewed attacks on Iran.

Iran has indicated that it is prepared to retaliate, adding to uncertainty over the conflict’s potential impact on energy markets.

The energy sector reached a record high on Friday, making it a notable exception to the broader market weakness.

However, higher oil prices also raised concerns about inflation and the potential pressure on household spending.

University of Michigan data showed US consumer sentiment slipped close to a record low in October as rising prices linked to the Middle East conflict weakened households’ views of the economy.

Dow stocks fall as weakness spreads beyond technology

Selling pressure extended across several sectors on Friday, including consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.

Financial stocks also weakened, contributing to the Dow’s decline.

American Express fell more than 3% after announcing plans to reduce its global workforce by about 5%, citing preparations for the growing use of artificial intelligence.

Caterpillar declined around 2%, while Goldman Sachs lost more than 1%.

Telecommunications stocks also came under pressure following a report that SpaceX was seeking access to thousands of cellular sites as it explores plans to become a fourth nationwide wireless carrier.

Technology shares were comparatively resilient after the previous session’s sell-off.

Microsoft edged higher, while Micron Technology gained 2.5% and Advanced Micro Devices rose 1.7%.

Investors have been reassessing the outlook for AI-related stocks amid concerns about the scale of borrowing required to finance data centres and the potential impact of higher interest rates.

However, recent corporate earnings have provided some support for the sector.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than four basis points to around 4.999% on Friday, returning above the 5% level after briefly falling below it a day earlier.

Fed decision and Big Tech earnings in focus

Investors are preparing for a significant week of corporate results and monetary policy developments.

About one-third of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings next week, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.

Their capital expenditure forecasts will be closely watched for indications of whether spending on AI infrastructure will continue to expand at its current pace.

LSEG IBES data indicated that S&P 500 companies were on track to increase earnings by more than 32% in the third quarter, supporting the broader market’s gains this year.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting.

Investors will nevertheless look for signals about whether policymakers could raise rates in December.

Markets are also monitoring the November 3 US midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

Together, corporate earnings, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risks could shape the direction of US stocks in the coming week.

The post Dow falls 1.25% as oil tops $117 and investors await Fed, big tech earnings appeared first on Invezz

The post Dow falls 1.25% as oil tops $117 and investors await Fed, big tech earnings appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

Oil prices surged amid fresh Middle East supply concerns, while Anthropic expanded its European AI ambitions, SpaceX explored a nationwide wireless service, and SK Hynix shelved plans for a US listing of its Solidigm unit.

Oil prices rise as Houthi attacks fuel supply concerns

Oil prices climbed on Friday, with Brent crude touching its highest level in nearly six months as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Brent crude futures rose 3.7%, to $117.37 a barrel, after reaching an intraday high of $117.45. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 4.45%, to $103.91.

Brent was on track for a weekly gain of 6%, while WTI was set to finish the week 1.5% higher.

The rally followed attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure.

Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran on Thursday, Reuters reported.

Supply concerns were compounded by an oil spill detected off the UAE coast near Umm Al Quwain. Authorities had not identified the tanker involved or disclosed the cause.

Shipping security also remained a concern, with October emerging as the worst month for attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data cited by Reuters.

Anthropic launches AI consultancy venture in Europe

Anthropic is expanding its enterprise AI business through a partnership with London-based private equity firm Hg, according to the Financial Times.

The companies plan to establish an independent consultancy that will place AI consultants and engineers within businesses to help integrate artificial intelligence into existing workflows and develop new products.

The venture is expected to begin operations by the end of 2026, with London and Berlin as its main hubs.

Anthropic will contribute capital from its balance sheet, while Hg will invest through the funds it manages.

The arrangement combines Anthropic’s AI technology and engineering expertise with Hg’s experience in software and services businesses.

The move puts Anthropic in more direct competition with traditional IT consultancies.

The company has already entered the US AI implementation market through Ode, an independent AI services company introduced in July.

The European expansion comes as Anthropic prepares for a potential initial public offering.

SpaceX explores nationwide wireless expansion

SpaceX shares rose 1.84% on Friday as the company reportedly pursued access to at least 80,000 cellular sites across the United States.

According to Bloomberg, the company is in talks with cellular infrastructure providers as it seeks to combine Starlink’s satellite connectivity with ground-based infrastructure and expand into nationwide wireless services.

Crown Castle is among the companies involved in the discussions, alongside American Tower and Vertical Bridge Holdings. Potential agreements could be worth billions of dollars.

The initiative could help SpaceX move closer to becoming a fourth nationwide wireless carrier.

The company recently received Federal Communications Commission approval to launch 15,000 satellites designed to connect directly to mobile phones.

The report also affected established telecom stocks. AT&T shares fell about 7.9% in trading, while Verizon declined around 1.18% and T-Mobile lost approximately 7.71%.

SK Hynix shelves Solidigm’s potential US IPO

SK Hynix shares rose 4.05% on Friday after the South Korean chipmaker abandoned plans to pursue a potential US IPO of its subsidiary Solidigm.

In a regulatory filing, SK Hynix said it had halted its review of a possible listing and discussions about pre-IPO investment, citing recent capital market conditions.

Solidigm had reportedly been preparing an offering that could raise around $10 billion and value the business at as much as $100 billion.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had reportedly been selected to work on the proposed transaction.

Established in 2021 following SK Hynix’s acquisition of Intel’s flash memory business, Solidigm supplies high-capacity solid-state drives used in AI data centres.

The proposed listing also faced scrutiny from South Korean regulators over concerns about minority shareholder dilution and the implications of listing a subsidiary separately in the US.

The decision comes amid wider efforts in South Korea to address the so-called “Korea discount”, in which domestic companies often trade at lower valuations than international peers.

The post Evening digest: oil jumps to $117, SpaceX to enter wireless services appeared first on Invezz

The post Evening digest: oil jumps to $117, SpaceX to enter wireless services appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

Rubrik’s stock extended its strong rally on October 23, reaching a record high as demand for cybersecurity solutions continues to grow amid the ongoing AI boom. Shares of RBRK jumped to $129.60, a 210% gain from their lowest point this year, lifting the company’s market capitalization to $26.9 billion. However, the stock appears to be forming a rising wedge pattern, which suggests it could pull back soon.

Rubrik stock jumps as demand for services rise

RBRK stock has been one of the best-performing stocks as the ongoing AI boom has led to a surge in demand for cybersecurity products. This demand has grown in the era of AI agents, which are expected to be the biggest threats in the world. 

The most recent results showed that its business continued to boom in the second quarter, with revenue rising by 38% to $427.3 million. Its subscription revenue rose by 37% to $407 million, a trend that the management expects will continue. 

Its customers paying at least $100,000 a year rose to 3,084, a 23% annual increase. Some of the biggest customers are companies like PepsiCo, Iron Mountain, and Adobe.

Analysts believe that the company has more room for growth. The average estimate among analysts is that its third-quarter revenue will be $430 million, up by 22% from a year earlier. Its guidance for the fourth quarter is expected to be $446 million, up by 18% from the same period last year.

Analysts are generally bullish on RBRK stock

Top analysts tracking Rubrik have a bullish outlook for the company. Dan Ives, who started Yorkville Ives, initiated the company with a target of $145, suggesting a 12% jump from the current level. 

Shrenik Kothari, a Baird analyst, boosted his rating to outperform, while Wedbush’s Steven Wahrhaftig has a target of $120.

The challenge, however, is that the stock has jumped above most of the analysts’ target. The average target among analysts is $115, suggesting a 12% drop from the current level. 

A major risk that Rubrik faces is its high valuation multiple. It has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 240, much higher than the technology sector median of 21. Its forward EV-to-EBITDA stands at 227, also higher than the median of 13.

Rubrik stock technical analysis

RBRK stock chart | Source: TradingView

On the charts, we see that the RBRK stock has been in a strong upward trend in the past few months. It has jumped from a low of $41.73 in January to the current $130. The stock jumped above the key resistance level of $92.26, its highest point in December last year.

It has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has provided it with a strong dynamic support. The stock also remains above the Supertrend indicator. 

These technicals suggest that the stock has more upside to go. Such a move may push it to the resistance level of $150. The risk, however, is that the stock has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is made up of two ascending and converging trendlines. 

Rubrik’s MACD indicator has also formed a bearish crossover pattern. Therefore, there is a possibility that the stock will rise a bit, and then retreat as investors start booking profits. 

The post Rubrik stock hits a record high on AI demand, as a risky pattern slowly forms appeared first on Invezz

The post Rubrik stock hits a record high on AI demand, as a risky pattern slowly forms appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

AMD and Intel stocks rose on Friday, rebounding after a sector-wide sell-off a day earlier as investors returned to select technology shares despite weakness across the broader market.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 2%, while Intel was up 1.76%. Technology stocks advanced as investors assessed the outlook for artificial intelligence spending and semiconductor demand ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.10%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.09%.

Technology gained 0.43%, making it the second-best-performing S&P 500 sector behind energy, which advanced 2.50%.

Only two of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors traded higher.

Intel’s Arizona Fab expansion draws analyst attention

Intel was also in focus after Wedbush Securities highlighted the potential contribution of additional manufacturing capacity to the company’s revenue growth.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said the installation of equipment at Intel’s Fab 62 facility in Arizona was consistent with expectations that production would begin in 2028.

However, he noted that it remained unclear whether the initial production lines would use Intel’s 18A or 14A process technology.

Bryson said additional capacity was important because existing constraints were limiting Intel’s ability to meet customer demand, particularly for Xeon server processors.

In his view, these constraints were also weighing on revenue growth and the company’s ability to optimise its product mix.

Intel Foundry CTO and COO Naga Chandrasekaran said this week that construction and equipment installation were underway at Fab 62, the company’s sixth high-volume manufacturing facility at its Ocotillo campus in Arizona.

Operations are expected to begin by the end of 2027, although Intel has not disclosed which manufacturing node the facility will use or its planned production capacity.

Intel has also reported progress at other US facilities.

Its plant in New Albany, Ohio, received its first major structural truss, while its Oregon development fab integrated a High-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography machine.

Susquehanna revises Semiconductor price targets

Susquehanna updated its price targets for several semiconductor companies ahead of earnings season, reflecting differing expectations across the sector.

The firm raised its AMD price target to $620 from $550 and increased its Qualcomm target to $185 from $160. However, it lowered Intel’s target to $105 from $115.

AI demand supports server chips as PC market weakens

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland said artificial intelligence would likely drive much of the semiconductor sector’s potential upside, while the broader industry upcycle continued.

Rolland noted that semiconductor lead times had expanded by approximately two weeks for a second consecutive quarter in the firm’s SemiSIGnals data.

He also highlighted increasingly aggressive pricing, including a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase in the third quarter of 2025, with further price increases expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and into 2027.

However, the PC market outlook has weakened.

Rolland said third-quarter original design manufacturer builds were tracking significantly below previous expectations, pointing to potentially below-seasonal second-half results for AMD and Intel’s client businesses.

Both companies are shifting wafer capacity from PC processors towards server products to address demand associated with agentic AI.

Rolland said the scale of potential server growth would depend on how quickly additional capacity becomes available.

He also noted that Arm-based hyperscale CPUs were expected to gain share as host processors for custom AI accelerators, while memory supply constraints could weigh on smartphone demand.

Meanwhile, expanding hyperscaler capital expenditure plans continued to support data centre demand, although power and infrastructure constraints raised questions about how much planned capacity could be delivered.

The post Why are AMD, Intel stocks gaining today? appeared first on Invezz

The post Why are AMD, Intel stocks gaining today? appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

American Express (AXP) posted a mixed Q3 and raised its annual profit guidance on Friday morning, but investors aren’t celebrating.

AXP shares came under pressure as the payments giant announced plans of eliminating about 5% of its global workforce.

The restructuring, intended partly to prepare the company for greater use of artificial intelligence, comes despite resilient spending among affluent customers.

For shareholders, the tension is clear: AMEX’s premium business keeps growing, but turning that growth into stronger profitability remains an expensive undertaking.

A key accounting distinction in AMEX’s Q3 earnings

American Express reported a 9% year-over-year increase in revenue to $20.06 billion on $4.68 per share of earnings.

Analysts had called for a lower $4.48 per share of earnings (EPS) but a higher $20.12 billion in revenue.

Investors should distinguish that performance from reported EPS of about $5.42 – which came in up 31% versus the third quarter of last year.

The adjusted figure removes the Global Business Travel Group stake-sale gain and associated restructuring charges, making it a more useful starting point for assessing continuing earnings power.

That said, the underlying demand picture remains rather encouraging. Card spending increased 8% to a whopping $454 billion, suggesting customers are still using their accounts actively.

Still, the revenue shortfall shows why healthy spending alone may struggle to lift AXP stock when expectations already assume considerable resilience.

AI-linked job cuts put premium-service model to test

American Express’ layoffs are part of an effort to simplify management, positioning the company for greater automation.

According to CFO Christophe Le Caillec, the goal includes becoming “leaner, more agile, and also to prepare for AI.” Amex recorded a $336 million restructuring charge in the quarter.

For investors, the potential benefit extends well beyond lower payroll costs – faster decisions and automated routine work could help the company expand without adding staff at the same pace.

But that opportunity carries an “execution risk.” Premium cardholders pay for dependable service, making customer experience a crucial constraint on cost cutting.

The investment case therefore depends on productivity improvements that preserve retention and service quality. A smaller workforce, by itself, does not establish that AI has delivered sustainable savings.

What’s the next catalyst for American Express?

AMEX now expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $17.60 – and the financial services company remains on track for about 10% revenue growth.

Its credit metrics also offer reassurance: quarterly net write-off rate improved to 1.8% from 1.9% a year earlier.

However, lower credit-loss provisions partly reflected a reserve release, a benefit investors should avoid automatically projecting into future quarters.

That makes the next few quarters particularly revealing.

Investors should watch whether recurring earnings increasingly reflect business expansion and productivity, alongside continued discipline in lending.

Friday’s announcement offers a credible route to better profitability, but the valuation argument needs evidence that those benefits endure.

For prospective buyers, the most persuasive catalyst would be improving earnings quality while Amex protects the customer relationships that support its premium franchise.

The post American Express beats earnings, cuts jobs – still fails to win over Wall Street appeared first on Invezz

The post American Express beats earnings, cuts jobs – still fails to win over Wall Street appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.

Moderna’s (MRNA) leaked cancer-vaccine trial results looked “promising” on the surface, yet the biotech stock came under intense pressure late on Thursday and was weak on Friday morning too, although the stock regained the losses and was trading higher later in the session.

In fact, MRNA slipped through its 20-day moving average (MA) this week, indicating bears have taken back control of the near-term.

Despite recent weakness, however, Moderna stock remains a blockbuster investment for 2026, currently trading at more than 6x its price at the start of this year.

Why Moderna stock keeps sliding?

The Phase 3 leaked trial data showed that “intismeran autogene” – Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine – combined with Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% versus Keytruda alone.

It also lowered the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%. Those are meaningful clinical gains, and the companies reported no new safety signals.

But the market had already rewarded the study’s success following August’s initial announcement.

The detailed findings therefore needed to improve expectations further.

Bloomberg reported that analysts questioned whether the melanoma results justified confidence in a much broader cancer franchise.

For MRNA shares, that distinction matters – demonstrating that one treatment works supports its development, while supporting a premium valuation requires a credible path to commercial revenue across a larger market.

Earlier trial created a difficult comparison

Another pressure point was the apparent gap with earlier research.

A smaller study showed a 49% reduction in recurrence or death and a 59% reduction in distant metastasis or death, compared with 42% and 38%, respectively, in the larger trial.

However, “different patient populations” and “follow-up periods” mean these are not really direct comparisons.

The latest findings also contain nuance that headline percentages miss.

The companies said the treatment groups performed similarly during the first six months; a prespecified analysis showed stronger benefits afterward. Overall survival data remain immature.

That makes sweeping conclusions premature. The study supports a reduction in recurrence, but it has not yet established an overall survival benefit.

Moderna investors assessing durability, treatment timing, and eventual adoption still have major questions to resolve as follow-up continues.

What’s the next test for MRNA shares?

Moderna’s next challenge is turning clinical progress into an economically attractive product.

The company is preparing to seek US approval and anticipates a potential launch in 2027.

Because the therapy is tailored to each patient’s tumor, investors will need to assess manufacturing capacity, delivery times, reimbursement, and the cost of supplying treatment.

Strong efficacy alone cannot establish the margins or sales volumes the business will ultimately generate.

Friday’s decline therefore raises a practical valuation question: how much future success does MRNA stock already assume at about 50x sales?

Regulatory progress, launch economics and evidence from additional cancer trials could help answer it.

Until then, a positive melanoma study can strengthen Moderna’s scientific credentials while still leaving shareholders vulnerable to falling expectations.

The post Moderna leaked data was positive, what’s hurting MRNA stock then? appeared first on Invezz

The post Moderna leaked data was positive, what’s hurting MRNA stock then? appeared first on Girls Rock Investing.